Oregon's Energy Future is Not Very Bright

Contributed by Nicole Hughes, Executive Director of Renewable NW 

In 2021, Oregon enacted a law mandating utilities serve Oregon customers with 100% clean electricity by 2040. Since then, progress has been slow, and utilities are not on track to meet the first milestone in 2030. Decarbonization has taken a back seat to other pressing challenges facing the grid, like rising costs, wildfire risks, and load growth.

However, a renewed focus on decarbonization could help address some of these challenges, especially the increasing cost of electricity. Oregonians have faced multiple double-digit rate hikes recently — a trend that’s expected to continue, driven by record-high natural gas prices and insufficient generation and transmission to meet demand. For more insight into the factors influencing electricity prices, I suggest this Oregon Department of Energy explainer.

Wholesale electricity costs (the prices generators charge utilities before resale to consumers) are shaped by supply, demand, and the cost of generation and transmission. Like any commodity, electricity prices rise when supply is low. Growing demand increases the need for more infrastructure, but if generation and transmission aren’t expanding fast enough, supply tightens, raising costs. Delayed investments in infrastructure have created bottlenecks that restrict supply and increase prices, and until these issues are addressed, electricity costs in Oregon will keep rising.

Oregon cannot achieve an affordable 100% clean energy grid on its own. When Oregon faces low renewable energy output or severe weather, a diverse mix of generation from the region helps maintain a reliable, cost-efficient supply. However, for regional resource sharing to be effective, Oregon and the West must invest in transmission infrastructure. New transmission will improve grid reliability, increase energy supply access to meet demand, and support decarbonization.

Strengthening regional connections through transmission is important; however, Oregon must also address slow, local progress in clean resource development. Clean energy projects face significant hurdles in complying with Oregon’s land use laws, often encountering multiple appeals across various jurisdictions. These delays extend development timelines and drive up costs for consumers. The challenge stems not only from the structure of these laws, but from Oregonians’ complicated relationship with development.

This is evident in the ongoing housing debate — there’s broad agreement that more housing is needed, yet significant opposition persists, particularly to new low-income housing. Laws allow virtually anyone to delay projects for years, even if not directly impacted.

We saw this play out recently in Forest Park when Portland General Electric proposed a reliability upgrade to their transmission lines. The plan to add 1,400 feet of transmission within an existing corridor met strong resistance, raising the crucial question: if small upgrades face such pushback, how will we build the thousands of miles of transmission needed for reliability and decarbonization?

As a lifelong Portland resident, I understand the desire to protect natural spaces. However, projects like this — building transmission within existing corridors — are exactly what we should support. They minimize land use conflicts and preserve undeveloped areas while ensuring a reliable grid.

Barriers to development not only cast doubt on our ability to decarbonize the grid but also raise concerns about the future cost and reliability of our electricity. Without new infrastructure, Oregonians will face ongoing rate increases and reliability challenges. The longer we delay building new electricity infrastructure, the longer we put off the benefits for Oregonians around costs and reliability.

We always knew the transition to 100% clean energy wouldn’t be easy. But we didn’t fully anticipate the extent to which Oregonians would resist the associated infrastructure needs. If the commitment to decarbonization remains, it’s time for Oregonians to ask ourselves if we are truly prepared to make the difficult choices needed to turn that vision into reality.